Well, here we are again. The Bank of Canada (BoC) just delivered another 0.25% rate cut this morning, marking their seventh consecutive cut. This brings the prime rate down to 4.95%, once the banks and mortgage lenders follow suit—which typically happens within a few days.

Just a few weeks ago, many were expecting the BoC to hold steady today, largely due to January’s higher-than-expected inflation numbers. But then came the tariffs, shaking things up and forcing the BoC’s hand. Some even speculated we’d see an oversized 0.50% cut this round, but that turned out to be wishful thinking.

 

More Rate Cuts on the Way?

Spoiler alert: The Bank of Canada isn’t done cutting rates. Their next announcement is coming on April 16th, and another cut—possibly a bigger one—is definitely on the table.

But between now and then? Anything can happen. Canada’s reciprocal tariffs are slated to roll out early April, and the trade tug-of-war with the U.S. and Mexico keeps shifting by the day. Markets hate uncertainty, and right now, we’ve got a boatload of it. Any predictions made today could be useless by next week.

 

Will Fixed Mortgage Rates Keep Dropping?

Fixed mortgage rates have now settled in the high 3% to low 4% range, and they’ll likely drop further before summer. But don’t expect them to free-fall at the same pace as the BoC rate.

If the Bank of Canada cuts by another 1.00%, that does not mean fixed rates will also drop by 1.00%. They just don’t work that way. At this point, if fixed rates hit the mid-3% range, that would be a solid win. But as always, the market has a mind of its own.

 

Final Thoughts

The BoC thought they were getting inflation under control—then tariffs came along and threw a wrench in their plans. Let’s be real: tariffs don’t help anyone. Not Canada. Not the U.S. Not Mexico. It’s like a self-inflicted wound for both economies.

But if there’s one upside? The Bank of Canada now has even more reason to cut rates aggressively. And if you’re a borrower? That’s music to your ears.

That’s it for this week. Stay tuned—because next week’s blog could tell a completely different story. The only thing we know for sure is that nothing stays the same for long.

You can read the full announcement from the Bank of Canada here.