Since October 2023, fixed mortgage rates have dropped by about 2.00%, creating a buzz among homeowners and buyers. Now, with predictions that the Bank of Canada may lower its rate by up to 1.75% by Q3 of next year… including another potential oversized cut on December 11th, excitement is high. 

However, it’s possible if not likely that fixed mortgage rates may not fall much further than they already have. 

This doesn’t mean that they won’t come down. Just not quite as much as what some may have been expecting.  I have said previously that if fixed rates got down into the mid-3% range then we would be doing really well. In other words, it’s possible that they could get down into that range, but I certainly wouldn’t count on it. 

 

A Shift Back to 5-Year Fixed Mortgages? 

Historically, the 5-year fixed mortgage has been the go-to choice. However, by late 2022, the 3-year fixed mortgage gained traction, despite being priced at a premium of up to 0.40% over the 5-year. The thinking was strategic: pay a little extra now and then switch to a lower rate at the end of the term. 

Yet, as fixed rates have already dropped by about 2% over the past year, the gap between 3-year and 5-year fixed rates has narrowed, making the 5-year fixed an appealing option once again. 

That said, it’s crucial to evaluate individual circumstances. Not everyone should jump into a 5-year fixed term, as personal financial goals and circumstances vary. Choosing a mortgage is more than finding the lowest rate; it’s about finding the option that saves the most over time. In fact, choosing solely based on the lowest rate can sometimes be a costly mistake, as I illustrate in several examples in my book.

 

Rising Fixed Mortgage Rates? 

Fixed mortgage rates are closely tied to Government of Canada bond yields, which often follow the lead of U.S. Treasury yields, as indicated in the chart below. 

Source: mortgagelogic.news

With a strong U.S. economy pushing bond yields higher, Canada could see the same trend. This means that even if the Bank of Canada continues rate cuts, we may see some increases to fixed rates. 

We also have the US election just around the corner. If Trump wins, then US Treasury yields will likely rise further… followed by Canadian bond yields, adding further upward pressure to fixed mortgage rates. 

It’s a reminder that fixed mortgage rates don’t always follow the Bank of Canada rate directly and can sometimes move in the opposite direction.

 

Time to Consider a Variable Rate? 

Four of Canada’s six major banks forecast further rate cuts from the Bank of Canada, estimating reductions between 1.50% and 1.75% by the end of Q3 2025. However, economists differ in their outlooks. Scotiabank, for example, is more cautious, expecting only a 0.75% reduction, while BMO anticipates a 1.25% cut.

This shift is largely due to inflation dropping to 1.6% in September, below the Bank of Canada’s 2.00% target. While low inflation might sound positive, it can be just as troubling as high inflation, signaling too much of a slowdown in economic activity. To counter this, the Bank would need to stimulate growth to bring inflation back to target. After focusing on cooling the economy, they now face the challenge of sparking momentum again, which is why further rate cuts are likely on the horizon.

If the forecasts are correct, then today’s variable rate mortgages would fall into the low to mid 3% range. This would make variable rate mortgages worthy of consideration for some. 

But the question is… will they be correct? 

Let’s also not lose sight of the fact that prime rate will increase again at some point, likely within the next 3-5 years. But that’s still a long way away… and anything can happen over that period. 

I’ll be talking more about choosing a variable rate mortgage in an upcoming blog. 

 

Final Thoughts 

I like to compare mortgage rate forecasts with weather forecasts. The further out the predictions are made, the less likely they are to be accurate. They can only be made based on today’s information. As new information becomes available, the forecasts will change accordingly. It only takes one piece of news to change the forecasts in one direction or another. A perfect example is the war in Ukraine or the COVID-19 pandemic. The forecasts prior to these events were no longer accurate given the new information. In fact, they ended up being radically wrong. Sometimes we’re thrown a curveball that is impossible to predict. 

As always in the financial world, time will tell and anything can happen.